Does this apply to me?
Prediction Markets are currently only available to Luno customers in South Africa and Nigeria.
With Prediction Markets, powered by Limitless, you can use your Luno app to make daily and hourly price predictions and get payouts if you’re correct.
Predict whether the price of a popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), or Ripple (XRP) will close above or below a certain price at a specific time. These short-term markets give you the chance to make a daily and hourly prediction on crypto price movements and receive USDC payouts when you’re correct in your prediction. If you enjoy following price movements or playing games like Luno’s Price Predict, this is a trusted way to turn your market understanding into an earnings opportunity, all within the Luno app.
How do Prediction Markets work?
Getting started is straightforward:
- Choose a crypto asset: Pick from a market that is currently open
- Make your prediction: Decide whether the price will close above or below the daily and hourly price even and before the market closes
- Wait for the result: Prediction Markets are short-term, with daily and hourly opportunities and clear end times
- Earn USDC if you’re correct: If your prediction is right, you can claim a payout in USDC
The experience is designed to be easy to understand and quick to use: no leverage and no complex order types.
Funding your Predictions wallet with USDC
Note
In order to participate in Prediction Markets, you must first transfer at least 1 USDC into your dedicated USDC Predictions wallet - used solely for Prediction Markets. There are no transaction fees to transfer USDC between the two wallets.
- Sign into Luno
- Select Crypto at the bottom of the screen
- Select Prediction Markets in the top right corner
- Scroll down to USDC Predictions wallet and select Transfer
- Enter the amount you’d like to transfer and select REVIEW TRANSFER
- Confirm your transfer details, and select CONFIRM if you’re happy
Success! You’re now ready to buy your first position.
Buying your first position
- Navigate to the Prediction Markets screen
- Select Current markets to view the active open markets
- Select the market of your choice
- Choose Buy Above or Buy Below
- Read the terms and conditions, and if you’re happy, select Agree and continue
- Enter an amount and select Confirm position
To monitor the outcome of your position, navigate to the Your predictions tab.
Selling your position before market closure
If you change your mind and want to sell your position, you can do so. Just remember that you need to sell your position up to 1 minute before the market closes.
- Navigate to Your predictions
- Select Sell position
- Confirm the sell
Note
Because the system executes trades at the best available market price, the amount of USDC you get back when selling your position depends on the buyers available in the order book at that exact time. If market liquidity is low, the actual settlement can be significantly lower than the initial estimate.
Claiming a payout
When the market closes, you’ll be able to see the outcome under the Your predictions tab. If your prediction is correct, you’ll be able to claim a payout.
- Navigate to Your predictions
- Select Claim payout
- The payout will be sent to your Predictions wallet
Once you submit a claim, the amount will reflect in your USDC Predictions wallet. You can keep the funds there or transfer them from your USDC Predictions wallet to the USDC wallet in your portfolio.
Note
The final payout amount may vary slightly due to network (gas) fees, which are determined at the time of processing. You can view the exact fee in your transaction details once the payout is complete.
Transferring out of your USDC Predictions wallet
- Navigate to the Prediction Markets screen
- Select your USDC Predictions wallet
- Choose Transfer out
- Enter an amount and select REVIEW TRANSFER
- On the next screen, review the information and select CONFIRM
The balance that you’ve transferred out of your USDC Predictions wallet will now reflect in your ordinary USDC wallet in your portfolio.
Using Prediction Markets responsibly
Prediction Markets involve real investment. When you make a prediction, you’re putting real value behind your market view. That’s why Luno has built in safeguards to help you participate responsibly:
- You will need to fund a new USDC Predictions wallet to participate in Prediction Markets, separating it from the USDC held in your ordinary USDC wallet in your Portfolio
- You’ll need to read and acknowledge a risk disclosure before taking part
- You’ll be asked to confirm your risk acceptance before placing a prediction
- You can only have one open prediction at a time
- You must close an existing prediction before opening a new one
- You can’t hold multiple or conflicting positions in the same market
These measures help ensure that you understand the risks before committing funds and your exposure stays limited and intentional.
Frequently asked questions
What is Limitless?
Limitless is a peer-peer decentralised exchange operating on the blockchain. Luno has partnered with Limitless, allowing you to participate in prediction markets on the blockchain via Limitless and within the Luno app.
Is my personal data shared with Limitless?
No, Luno does not share any of your personal data with Limitless.
Can I participate without a Luno account?
No. To take part in Prediction Markets, you must have a Luno account, be an individual customer, complete KYC verification, and be in an eligible country (currently South Africa and Nigeria only). You also need to be logged in to view and participate.
What are the minimum or maximum limits when buying or selling a position?
The minimum is 1 USDC and the maximum is 10,000 USDC.
How close to market closing can I place or manage an order?
You can buy or sell up to 1 minute before the market closes. After that point, trading is paused until the next market re-opens.
How is a market's closing price resolved?
Markets are operated and arbitrated by Limitless which resolves markets based on data from the Pyth Network.
Example: A market for "Will Bitcoin be above or below $67,973.80?" closes on 10 March 2026, 10:00 UTC. That market will resolve to "YES" if the opening price of the 1-minute BTC (https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH:BTCUSD) candle on Mar 10, 2026, at 10:00 UTC is above $67973.80. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." The resolution is based on data from the Pyth Network.
Can I have more than one prediction open at a time?
Yes. You can have predictions open in multiple markets at the same time, but only one open prediction is allowed per market.
How do I "close" a prediction so I can start a new one?
You don’t need to manually close a prediction. Prediction Markets are short-term and automatically settle at the set end time. Once the market closes and the result is confirmed, you can place a new prediction. If you decide not to wait, you can also sell your position before the market closes and start a new one.
Additionally, different crypto markets open at different times (for example, BTC may open earlier than ETH), so there’s usually always another market available to participate in.
What happens if your prediction is incorrect?
If your prediction is incorrect, you will lose the total amount of USDC you put toward that prediction and you will receive no USDC payout.
Can I change my prediction once it’s placed?
No. Once you have committed to a market view, that prediction remains active until the set end time. However, if you choose to sell your position, you can do so and take a different position up to 1 minute before the market closes.
How is the payouts price determined?
Market resolution is based on data provided by the Pyth Network to ensure accuracy and transparency.
What happens if I forget to claim my payout?
Rewards not claimed within 30 days will automatically be allocated to your USDC Prediction wallet.